With the NFL Combine in the books, only the only events left to alter grades are school? Pro Days. I have a love/hate relationship with mock drafts. First, many fans seem to get stuck in groupthink, leading to outrage when a certain player is or is not mentioned in the top-32 picks because of how "unrealistic" that would be. Aren?t we all surprised at what actually happens in April? One of my main goals, especially this early in the process, is to introduce you to some new names that could ultimately end up as one of the top players at their position. I will shoot for accuracy at a later date. For now, this is all in fun.
There a few strategies to drafting. Obviously need is factored into the final grade teams give, along with talent, medicals, and character concerns. However, the one thing that may alter a prospect?s grade from team to team more than anything is scheme and fit. Since it is early in the offseason process, we have no clue what many teams? schemes will be for next season or the players that will run them, so the proverbial darts are being thrown at this time. Also, consider that many teams select prospects in the hopes of them taking over for a declining name-brand player, usually ones that are on the down slope of their career. It may not be a popular tactic, but it makes sense when keeping future success and salary cap in mind.
As always, you can comment below or reach me on Twitter.
1. Kansas City Chiefs -- LT Luke Joeckel, Texas A&M
I said I would put Geno Smith at this spot until the Chiefs make a move for another quarterback. So, after they reportedly agreed upon trade of Alex Smith, Andy Reid will almost certainly go in a different direction. If Branden Albert is resigned, this pick gets very interesting, but until then expect Joeckel or Eric Fisher to be the selection. The two are very close.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars -- DE Barkevious Mingo, LSU
This is all based on a guess for scheme fit. Gus Bradley?s scheme featured a run stuffing defensive end in Seattle, likely a role Tyson Alualu can play. On the opposite side, the Jaguars need a pass rusher whose main goal is to get to a point in the backfield and disrupt while penetrating. Mingo can line up from the 7 or 9 technique and do this quite well. Don?t get caught up in his dip in production, since it appeared Mingo was asked to take less aggressive lines at the QB in order to keep contain.
3. Oakland Raiders -- DT Sharrif Floyd, Florida
I have no idea who Reggie McKenzie is going to cut this offseason. Neither do the players on the Raiders roster. I almost slotted Geno Smith into this slot, since McKenzie has no ties to Carson Palmer or Terrelle Pryor. However, due to Tommy Kelly?s and Richard Seymour?s likely departures, along with Desmond Bryant?s arrest, I don?t see a starting defensive tackle on the Raiders? roster right now. Floyd?s talent is worthy of this selection.
4. Philadelphia Eagles -- DT Star Lotulelei, Utah
Many will question this selection after Star was given an incomplete medical report due to a heart issue. Keep in mind, the medical wasn?t failed, doctors just want the massive defensive lineman to receive multiple opinions. Lotulelei might be classified as a nose tackle, but he is much more than that and adds a lot of versatility to the Eagles? front seven.
5. Detroit Lions -- CB Dee Milliner, Alabama
The Lions could use a pass rusher, and in fact I usually side with the defensive end in situations where they have equal grades as corners. For some reason, possibly due to ex-GM Scott Pioli?s junior rankings, I get a feeling Milliner will be more highly coveted than many pass rushers that are generally considered to be in his talent range.
6. Cleveland Browns -- OLB Dion Jordan, Oregon
With the Browns' front seven likely in place outside of a strong side rush linebacker behind a three man front, expect the team to address that need at this selection. Even though he will be asked to predominantly rush the passer, that is the aspect of Jordan?s game I am least confident in. I do believe Jordan?s shoulder injury limited him in that regard last season, but the Duck?s comfort and agility in space is outstanding for his size.
7. Arizona Cardinals -- LT Eric Fisher, Central Michigan
There?s a real chance that Eric Fisher is the first overall pick. This obviously fills a great need, and although I?m not confident in selecting quarterbacks in the second- and third-round to produce right away just yet (Eric Stoner gives a great breakdown here), the new phenomenon certainly has paid off.
8. Buffalo Bills -- QB Geno Smith, West Virginia
This certainly would end the fairy tale of Ryan Nassib reuniting with college coach Doug Marrone, but Smith is a more intriguing talent. The Mountaineer did seemingly regress week to week, but I love his demeanor, reported work ethic, and pocket movement to buy himself extra time.
9. NY Jets -- OLB Ezekiel Ansah, BYU
Even though I think Ansah?s best projection is at five technique or strong side end in a four man front, more and more reports are surfacing that the BYU pass rusher is being considered at outside linebacker. I can see why, since Ansah currently struggles to create separation on his own. However, when he does, Ansah?s closing speed is the best in this pass rushing class.
10. Tennessee Titans -- G Chance Warmack, Alabama
I try not to use the term ?safe pick? since we?ve seen many of those fail in the past, but I think we might see more selections based on comfort than upside this year. Some will read into Warmack?s workout numbers and drop their evaluation, but I do not think there was a more consistently dominant player in 2012 that is available in this draft.
11. San Diego Chargers -- T Lane Johnson, Oklahoma
Despite Joeckel and Fisher going ahead of Johnson, the latter could end up being the best of the bunch. Johnson is not a finished product and will likely add weight to fill out a growing frame in order to absorb first contact more efficiently, but his agile feet to mirror pass rushers will keep evaluators optimistic. His posture versus power rushers could use some work.
12. Miami Dolphins -- WR Tavon Austin, West Virginia
I could be wrong, but I believe Jeff Ireland was very impressed with Percy Harvin when the receiver was entering the NFL. Austin doesn?t run with the same power, but I think he could reignite that same spark Ireland had in 2009. Although he only spent one season with him, head coach Joe Philbin did have some experience getting the ball to Randall Cobb, another potential comparison.
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- CB Xavier Rhodes, FSU
The Bucs have a good number of talented and young defensive players, and Rhodes fits the bill as an overly physical edge corner with speed to stick with receivers down field. He can be a bit unorthodox at times, but I definitely consider Rhodes a first-round talent, especially for a scheme that utilizes physical edge defenders.
14. Carolina Panthers -- S Johnathan Cyprien, FIU
By the time mid-March rolls around, I expect Cyprien to be a unanimous first-round projection. Sure, some will complain he is listed before Kenny Vaccaro and Matt Elam, but the FIU product has a real chance to be the best of the bunch. Reports surfaced after last year?s draft that the Panthers thought highly of Mark Barron, and although a new GM is in place, safety is one of the positions in need of an upgrade.
15. New Orleans Saints -- OLB Jarvis Jones, Georgia
Without a true pass rushing linebacker that has experience in a 3-4 scheme on the roster, Jones is a sensible pick. He didn?t choose to work out in Indianapolis, and there have been numerous reports of failed medicals, but Jones has edge pass rushing talent while flashing leverage.
16. St. Louis Rams -- WR Cordarrelle Patterson, Tennessee
I wasn?t planning on giving a receiver to the Rams, who extracted a lot from Chris Givens and likely remain high on Brian Quick. Patterson is a different kind of talent, and could remind Les Snead of a smaller, less physically dominant, Julio Jones.
With the NFL Combine in the books, only the only events left to alter grades are school? Pro Days. I have a love/hate relationship with mock drafts. First, many fans seem to get stuck in groupthink, leading to outrage when a certain player is or is not mentioned in the top-32 picks because of how "unrealistic" that would be. Aren?t we all surprised at what actually happens in April? One of my main goals, especially this early in the process, is to introduce you to some new names that could ultimately end up as one of the top players at their position. I will shoot for accuracy at a later date. For now, this is all in fun.
There a few strategies to drafting. Obviously need is factored into the final grade teams give, along with talent, medicals, and character concerns. However, the one thing that may alter a prospect?s grade from team to team more than anything is scheme and fit. Since it is early in the offseason process, we have no clue what many teams? schemes will be for next season or the players that will run them, so the proverbial darts are being thrown at this time. Also, consider that many teams select prospects in the hopes of them taking over for a declining name-brand player, usually ones that are on the down slope of their career. It may not be a popular tactic, but it makes sense when keeping future success and salary cap in mind.
As always, you can comment below or reach me on Twitter.
1. Kansas City Chiefs -- LT Luke Joeckel, Texas A&M
I said I would put Geno Smith at this spot until the Chiefs make a move for another quarterback. So, after they reportedly agreed upon trade of Alex Smith, Andy Reid will almost certainly go in a different direction. If Branden Albert is resigned, this pick gets very interesting, but until then expect Joeckel or Eric Fisher to be the selection. The two are very close.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars -- DE Barkevious Mingo, LSU
This is all based on a guess for scheme fit. Gus Bradley?s scheme featured a run stuffing defensive end in Seattle, likely a role Tyson Alualu can play. On the opposite side, the Jaguars need a pass rusher whose main goal is to get to a point in the backfield and disrupt while penetrating. Mingo can line up from the 7 or 9 technique and do this quite well. Don?t get caught up in his dip in production, since it appeared Mingo was asked to take less aggressive lines at the QB in order to keep contain.
3. Oakland Raiders -- DT Sharrif Floyd, Florida
I have no idea who Reggie McKenzie is going to cut this offseason. Neither do the players on the Raiders roster. I almost slotted Geno Smith into this slot, since McKenzie has no ties to Carson Palmer or Terrelle Pryor. However, due to Tommy Kelly?s and Richard Seymour?s likely departures, along with Desmond Bryant?s arrest, I don?t see a starting defensive tackle on the Raiders? roster right now. Floyd?s talent is worthy of this selection.
4. Philadelphia Eagles -- DT Star Lotulelei, Utah
Many will question this selection after Star was given an incomplete medical report due to a heart issue. Keep in mind, the medical wasn?t failed, doctors just want the massive defensive lineman to receive multiple opinions. Lotulelei might be classified as a nose tackle, but he is much more than that and adds a lot of versatility to the Eagles? front seven.
5. Detroit Lions -- CB Dee Milliner, Alabama
The Lions could use a pass rusher, and in fact I usually side with the defensive end in situations where they have equal grades as corners. For some reason, possibly due to ex-GM Scott Pioli?s junior rankings, I get a feeling Milliner will be more highly coveted than many pass rushers that are generally considered to be in his talent range.
6. Cleveland Browns -- OLB Dion Jordan, Oregon
With the Browns' front seven likely in place outside of a strong side rush linebacker behind a three man front, expect the team to address that need at this selection. Even though he will be asked to predominantly rush the passer, that is the aspect of Jordan?s game I am least confident in. I do believe Jordan?s shoulder injury limited him in that regard last season, but the Duck?s comfort and agility in space is outstanding for his size.
7. Arizona Cardinals -- LT Eric Fisher, Central Michigan
There?s a real chance that Eric Fisher is the first overall pick. This obviously fills a great need, and although I?m not confident in selecting quarterbacks in the second- and third-round to produce right away just yet (Eric Stoner gives a great breakdown here), the new phenomenon certainly has paid off.
8. Buffalo Bills -- QB Geno Smith, West Virginia
This certainly would end the fairy tale of Ryan Nassib reuniting with college coach Doug Marrone, but Smith is a more intriguing talent. The Mountaineer did seemingly regress week to week, but I love his demeanor, reported work ethic, and pocket movement to buy himself extra time.
9. NY Jets -- OLB Ezekiel Ansah, BYU
Even though I think Ansah?s best projection is at five technique or strong side end in a four man front, more and more reports are surfacing that the BYU pass rusher is being considered at outside linebacker. I can see why, since Ansah currently struggles to create separation on his own. However, when he does, Ansah?s closing speed is the best in this pass rushing class.
10. Tennessee Titans -- G Chance Warmack, Alabama
I try not to use the term ?safe pick? since we?ve seen many of those fail in the past, but I think we might see more selections based on comfort than upside this year. Some will read into Warmack?s workout numbers and drop their evaluation, but I do not think there was a more consistently dominant player in 2012 that is available in this draft.
11. San Diego Chargers -- T Lane Johnson, Oklahoma
Despite Joeckel and Fisher going ahead of Johnson, the latter could end up being the best of the bunch. Johnson is not a finished product and will likely add weight to fill out a growing frame in order to absorb first contact more efficiently, but his agile feet to mirror pass rushers will keep evaluators optimistic. His posture versus power rushers could use some work.
12. Miami Dolphins -- WR Tavon Austin, West Virginia
I could be wrong, but I believe Jeff Ireland was very impressed with Percy Harvin when the receiver was entering the NFL. Austin doesn?t run with the same power, but I think he could reignite that same spark Ireland had in 2009. Although he only spent one season with him, head coach Joe Philbin did have some experience getting the ball to Randall Cobb, another potential comparison.
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- CB Xavier Rhodes, FSU
The Bucs have a good number of talented and young defensive players, and Rhodes fits the bill as an overly physical edge corner with speed to stick with receivers down field. He can be a bit unorthodox at times, but I definitely consider Rhodes a first-round talent, especially for a scheme that utilizes physical edge defenders.
14. Carolina Panthers -- S Johnathan Cyprien, FIU
By the time mid-March rolls around, I expect Cyprien to be a unanimous first-round projection. Sure, some will complain he is listed before Kenny Vaccaro and Matt Elam, but the FIU product has a real chance to be the best of the bunch. Reports surfaced after last year?s draft that the Panthers thought highly of Mark Barron, and although a new GM is in place, safety is one of the positions in need of an upgrade.
15. New Orleans Saints -- OLB Jarvis Jones, Georgia
Without a true pass rushing linebacker that has experience in a 3-4 scheme on the roster, Jones is a sensible pick. He didn?t choose to work out in Indianapolis, and there have been numerous reports of failed medicals, but Jones has edge pass rushing talent while flashing leverage.
16. St. Louis Rams -- WR Cordarrelle Patterson, Tennessee
I wasn?t planning on giving a receiver to the Rams, who extracted a lot from Chris Givens and likely remain high on Brian Quick. Patterson is a different kind of talent, and could remind Les Snead of a smaller, less physically dominant, Julio Jones.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers -- DE/OLB Bjoern Werner, FSU
Steeler fans might dislike the fit, but consider Werner is the same weight as LaMarr Woodley was coming out of Michigan. I don?t expect Werner to drop into coverage often, but he times the snap well enough with solid hand use to be a dependable edge rusher. He actually played lighter during the season.
18. Dallas Cowboys -- DT Sheldon Richardson, Missouri
Richardson?s talent likely exceeds this slot, but if he is on the board the Cowboys have found their 3 technique defensive tackle. The Missouri product has some Fletcher Cox to him and can be scheme versatile. Richardson ended his career with the Tigers on rocky terms, but he has plenty of talent.
19. NY Giants -- DE Cornelius Carradine, FSU
Despite promising reports mentioning that Carradine will hold a Pro Day in April, his status for the beginning of the 2013 season might be uncertain. Still, the Giants are in a great position to make this pick, especially since Tank is a top-12 talent in this class.
20. Chicago Bears -- T Menelik Watson, FSU
The former basketball player is still learning the technical aspects of the position, but Watson was a natural on the right side of the line this season. He could be called the offensive version of Ansah, and there?s a chance a team could project him as a left tackle.
21. Cincinnati Bengals -- S Kenny Vaccaro, Texas
The biggest issue I see with Vaccaro is his tendency to miss tackles at the last moment. Everything looks right, but for some reason Vaccaro fails to follow through and wrap up. He can cover the slot in nickel situations, and Vaccaro has plenty of range in the back half.
22. St. Louis Rams (from Redskins) -- G Jonathan Cooper, UNC
With reports surfacing that many teams are looking at Cooper as a center along with his natural guard spot, he could go much higher than this slot. I like either projection, but my only question with Cooper is his tendency to lose off the snap when pass protecting against a defensive lineman lined up over his head. His mobility and comfort in space is outstanding.
23. Minnesota Vikings -- LB Arthur Brown, Kansas State
With the lack of an inside and weakside linebacker, Brown could immediately slide into either role and make an impact. Some will get caught up in his measurements, but Brown is a physical player with excellent speed. There have been reports of a shoulder injury, but Brown did not miss a game in the last two seasons.
24. Indianapolis Colts -- OLB Corey Lemonier, Auburn
Dwight Freeney is gone, and although Jerry Hughes flashed at times last season, Lemonier would offer a much more physical presence on the edge. He shows strong hands and leg drive, but Lemonier loss backfield vision, but I think playing in space would help ease those concerns.
25. Seattle Seahawks -- DE Datone Jones, UCLA
Okay, this requires some reasoning. Obviously the Seahawks need pass rushing help with Chris Clemons injured. Jones? frame doesn?t fit the traditional wide rusher but his game does. If asked to disrupt the backfield by attacking a certain depth of the pocket, Jones is very effective due to a combination of explosion and strength off the line. My biggest issue was his hand fighting at the line of scrimmage when asked to read and react. Also, the Seahawks aren?t afraid to a take a risk or chance on prospects that don?t quite seem to fit the traditional mold. Jones can effectively rush from the interior as well.
26. Green Bay Packers -- S Matt Elam, Florida
Honestly, I'm not sold on Elam, but others around the NFL seem to be. He puts together one hell of a highlight tape, and perhaps the Gators? scheme did not take advantage of Elam?s skills. I rank Cyprien and Vaccaro ahead of Elam, and watch out for Georgia Southern?s JJ Wilcox.
27. Houston Texans -- WR DeAndre Hopkins, Clemson
A Roddy White type receiver, Hopkins catches everything in (or out) of his range. He has straight-line speed, but Hopkins? hand strength and consistency at the catch point is what makes him one of the top receiver prospects in this class.
28. Denver Broncos -- ILB Manti Te?o, Notre Dame
I was set on keeping Te?o out of the first-round, but Adam Schefter consistently reporting that the Irish linebacker will not leave the top-32 picks forced me to place him here. Joe Mays and Nate Irving are under contract right now, and Te?o should be an upgrade over Keith Brooking, who was third in snaps among the team?s linebackers.
29. New England Patriots -- CB Jamar Taylor, Boise State
Admittedly, I am a huge fan of Taylor?s, but he fits what the Patriots look for in a cornerback. Even if the team gives Aqib Talib a new deal, this is a logical selection. Taylor is versatile in the coverages he is comfortable in and consistently disrupts the catch point.
30. Atlanta Falcons -- RB Eddie Lacy, Alabama
Thomas Dimitroff?s unwillingness to spend an early draft pick on players with off-field issues could limit his choice of pass rushers (Damontre Moore, Cornelius Washington). Enter Lacy, an athletic specimen for his size with the ability to carry the load for the Falcons.
31. San Francisco 49ers -- DL Jesse Williams, Alabama
Williams is widely considered a nose tackle prospect, and although he could play it in the NFL, the Australian also played the 5 technique end spot for some time at Alabama. We all saw the 49ers defense take a step back when Justin Smith was sidelined. Williams is beastly strong and flashes penetration ability.
32. Baltimore Ravens -- ILB Kevin Minter, LSU
Although Minter isn?t quite as athletic as Ray Lewis was early in his career, the LSU linebacker does many of the same things the older Lewis put on the field. He is just fast enough to get to edge runs due to comfort in trash and tight angles, and Minter is a hammer between the tackles.
Source: http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/42642/344/post-combine-mock-draft
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